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Assessing the Predictive Power of Vulnerability Measures: Evidence from Panel Data for Argentina and Chile

ISSNAño: 2012
AutorAutor/es: Bérgolo, Marcelo , Cruces, Guillermo; Ham, Andrés
EditorialEditorial: Journal of Income Distribution 21(1): 28-64
Nº de PáginasNº de Páginas: 36
This article carries out a validation exercise of vulnerability measures as predictors
of poverty at the aggregate and micro levels based on short and long term panel data
for Argentina and Chile. It then compares their performance to that of deprivation
indicators. The main findings indicate that while vulnerability measures are good
predictors of poverty in the aggregate, the same does not occur at household level.
These results imply that while useful, vulnerability estimates require incorporating
shocks to attenuate biased estimates if they are to be used for targeting purposes.
 
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