El cambio estructural es entendido como transformaciones de largo plazo en la composición de los agregados económicos que representan modificaciones en la estructura económica en términos de especialización e interrelaciones y que, en consecuencia, impactan sobre el crecimiento. Su estudio atiende al efecto diferencial del progreso técnico, su relación con la expansión productiva y distribución de ingresos y su articulación con los componentes de la demanda.
El Grupo se organiza de acuerdo a seis líneas de investigación.
Revisión teórica sobre cambio estructural y desarrollo. Espacio de reflexión teórica sobre discusiones recientes en la materia.
Revisión y elaboración de cuentas nacionales y de carácter sectorial. Los requerimientos de información obligan a dedicar esfuerzos al trabajo con base de datos, el relevamiento y la estimación de series macroeconómicas.
Realización de ejercicios de contabilidad del crecimiento. Se proponen caracterizaciones del desempeño de la economía en el largo plazo que den al Grupo un marco empírico útil para las diversas aproximaciones.
Retribución a los factores productivos, distribución del ingreso y crecimiento. La relación entre crecimiento y distribución tiene al cambio estructural como protagonista y a la Curva de Kuznets como principal expresión. Se discutirá esta hipótesis y sus derivaciones.
Innovación tecnológica y progreso técnico. Ambos procesos constituyen los principales motores del cambio estructural y serán estudiados en profundidad.
Estudio de demanda doméstica y externa. Se estudiará el lado de la demanda abordando los procesos de consumo, inversión y exportaciones netas con el objetivo de complementar las aproximaciones ortodoxas.
In this work, we analyze the effect of export destinations on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of manufacturing Uruguayan firms for the period 1997-2006. We study two effects: self-selection and learning by exporting. There is evidence of self-selection with a stronger effect for firms exporting to developed countries. Nevertheless, applying transition groups methodology in order to mitigate endogeneity issues, there is no evidence that exporting to developed countries enhances productivity through learning by exporting. However, evidence of learning by exporting is found for those firms starting to export to less developed countries. These findings suggest an international strategy through which firms reach gains in productivity exporting to markets with lower entry cost, and once they have learned and improved their productivity, are in a better position to enter more developed countries.
http://ief.eco.unc.edu.ar/
This paper analyses the effects of increased competition resulting from the creation of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) on productivity, employment and wages for the Uruguayan manufacturing sector at the plant level.
We use impact evaluation techniques, namely regressions and matching and difference-in-differences estimation for the period 1988-1995.
One of the most robust findings is that increased trade liberalization seems to improve total factor productivity. Furthermore, we find reductions in employment driven mainly by the decrease in blue collars, increases in wages and a reduction in the wage gap between white and blue collars as a result of increased trade exposure. Thus, the increase in productivity along with the unemployment of unskilled workers would indicate a room for training, labour and social policies in order to countervail the negative impact of trade liberalization on less qualified workers.
In an increasingly globalized word, exporting plays a central role for economic growth and poverty reduction, particularly in small open economies..In this work we test the hypothesis that a rise in investment favors entrance in export markets and increases exports among previously exporting firms. We address causal links through impact evaluation techniques for observational data. We examine the binary case as well as continuous treatment analysis for investment as treatment. The analysis is conducted for a panel of Uruguayan manufacturing firms for the period 1997-2008. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of our approach for a Latin American economy, and the relatively long time span of our data makes it possible a better characterization of new entrants and firms with changing export behavior. Also, our data appears to be richer, including information to estimate total factor productivity, and R&D and training investments, which provide better controls for confounding factors. We find evidence that investments "cause" exports and export orientation, which provides a rationale for carefully designing investment promotion policies rather than focusing on other export support policies.
En este trabajo se muestra como las políticas comerciales, aunadas a las políticas industriales pro-activas han permitido un importante crecimiento del sector automotriz en Uruguay.
En este trabajo se muestra como las políticas comerciales, aunadas a las políticas industriales pro-activas han permitido un importante crecimiento del sector automotriz en Uruguay.