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DIE 04/20 - La relación de Okun en Uruguay: una revisión ante el shock del COVID-19

ISSNISSN/ISBN: 2301-1963
AutorAuthor/s: Suárez, Mauricio, Tapie, Pablo; Suárez, Mauricio; Rodríguez, Victoria
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In this paper, based on the Okun’s relationship, we estimate the dynamic models for unemployment, employment and labour force participation in its difference and gap versions. For that purpose, we used both annual and quarterly data. By so doing, we could make a short run forecast of these labour market variables. No major differences were found in the results between model specifications nor data frequencies. According to our outcomes, the negative shock produced by the COVID-19 outbreak will lead to an increase in unemployment and a contraction in employment and labour force participation.
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