DIE 05/21 - Implementación de las reglas fiscales: problemas metodológicos en la estimación del PIB potencial. Un análisis para Uruguay

The purpose of this project is to exhibit the problems generated by the estimation of the economic cycle while using univariate filters in times of strong economic shocks, such as the affectations of the COVID-19 pandemic. Likewise, this work shows the inconvenience drown by applying a Structural Fiscal Rule without properly considering the difficulties that not having a rightful estimation of the cyclical position of the GDP involves, at times where the economy finds itself going through recession periods, and does not count with accurate information about the cyclical corrections in a period of time where the adaptation of fiscal policies decisions is crucial. Taking this into consideration, two alternative methods were used to obtain the required estimations. The first one is based on the procedure applied by Heimberger (2020), and the latter incorporates for each period taken into consideration on the analysis of the projections of Uruguayan GDP, generated by an econometric model that incorporates as variables some of the primordial explicative factors that determine the path of the activity level of Uruguayan economy.  Empiric analysis indicates that potential output estimations have some kind of pro-cyclical bias, and in circumstances when a recession breaks out, the estimations will conduce to diagnose that the economy finds itself not in such a depressive situation as thought. The findings resulting in this work are coherent to recent contributions in economic theory, and conclusions driven by investigations regarding the international financial crisis from 2008-2009 and the macroeconomic situation derived from the pandemic.