Research Teams |
DT 09/14 - A composite leading cycle indicator for UruguayISSN/ISBN: 1688-5090
Author/s: Galaso Pablo, Rodríguez Sandra
Areas: Macroeconomics and Commerce
Download:
Download document
Nº of Pages: 27
This study estimates a composite leading business cycle indicator for the Uruguayan economy following the methodology of The Conference Board. Prediction is based on the analysis of multiple series that have a leading relationship to the Industrial Production Index, which is used as the reference variable of the overall economic activity. Once selected, these series are aggregated into a single composite indicator. Our index covers a 20-year period (from 1994 to 2013). It includes variables covering diverse aspects of economic activity and reaches to advance the two turning points occurred in Uruguay during that period.
|