Publicaciones
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This study models the relative expenditure of tourists in terms of budget allocation according to their dependence on a group of covariates. A model that captures how tourist distributes its budget among the diverse items is introduced to characterize and compare different types of tourists according to their relative expenditure patterns. For the empirical exercise, data for the period 2014–2019 collected by the Ministry of Tourism from the Inbound Tourism survey in Uruguay is analyzed by means of the compositional data analysis and modeled by a Dirichlet regression. The empirical results show that the expending pattern in accommodation, food, and others items depend on the destination, the season, the nationality, and the type of accommodation. In addition, the inferential analysis reveals different typologies of tourist, providing a novel interpretation of the tourist behavior from the microeconomic perspective.
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Idioma: Español
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This study analyses the common trends between expectation indicators of producers of the manufacturing sector in Uruguay and its linkage with economic growth. To this end, four expectation indicators are constructed from qualitative data obtained using surveys collected by the Camaras de Industrias del Uruguay (CIU) for the period 1998- 2017. Common trends are identified by estimating Multivariate Structural Models on the expectations indicators (categorized in four groups according to the firm specialization and international insertion). Its dynamical linkage with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is analyzed by applying non-parametric cointegration and causality tests. Results give evidence of bidirectional causality between expectations and GDP growth in the long, while in the short-run causality goes uniquely from the exporters' sentiment indicator trend to the GDP growth. The expectation trend of the more tradable and exposed to international competition sectors (exporter industries) is the one that drives overall industrials' expectations in Uruguay. More importantly, we cannot reject nonlinearity in the long-run relationship between the underlying trend of exporters' expectations and Uruguayan GDP growth, which shows that it may be a useful predictor of GDP growth provided that this nonlinearity is taken into account.
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The aim of this article is to introduce a multivariate statistical model that represents the expenditure of tourists disaggregated by categories. The model is applied to study the distribution of the expenditure of cruise passengers in Uruguay, using data of the 2016-2017 cruise season survey (collected by the Ministry of Tourism). Given the mixed distribution in each component of the main variable, the model is implemented in two stages and using copulas to obtain a conditional distribution of the different items of expenditure, characterizing the dependence between them. The empirical results show that the key variables that determine the average spending of cruise tourists are their residence and the port of arrival of the cruise. The parameters representing dependence of the copula show moderate association between the different categories of expenditure, in particular for cruisers disembarking in Montevideo, the capital of Uruguay. In addition, it can be noted that the expenditure pattern in each item shows time dependence. In general, the empirical results show that a cruiser that spends more on one item is likely to spend more (less) on a complementary (noncomplementary) items of expense.
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Fecha: 2020
El trabajo analiza la relación causal entre la inversión pública en infraestructura vial
y el crecimiento económico en Uruguay. A partir de información del gasto público en
infraestructura vial para el período 1988-2014, se estudia su relación de largo y corto
plazo con el crecimiento económico sobre la base de análisis de cointegración y modelos de corrección al equilibrio
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Fecha: 2020
Ch.7 "Strategies in Sustainable Tourism, Economic Growth and Clean Energy"
Editors: Daniel Balsalobre-LorenteOana M. DrihaMuhammad Shahbaz
Springer Ed.
Año: 2020
Idioma: Español
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Fecha: 2020
Chapter 8 in the book "Tourism development and planning in Central
and South America" Monterrubio, C., Andriotis, K. & Stylidis D. (Eds.).
Año: 2020
The relationship between air transport development and economic growth has been recently analysed in the economic literature. Most of the empirical research focuses in the identification of linear linkages and causalities between these variables (controlling or not by other macro variables). Previous research performed for a set of Latin-American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay) suggests that for the last two countries, nonlinear long-run cointegration relationships exist between transport and economic growth. The present study focuses on the identification of the nonlinearities underlay in those relationships and proposes a model to represent them. The methodology used in this paper combines cointegration concepts with asymmetric adjustment threshold models. In both cases, the nonlinearity is modelled on the dynamics of the adjustment to the long-run cointegration path between the variables, from transitory situations of disequilibrium. It is shown that M-TAR adjustment mechanism to the long-run equilibrium is suitable to describe the long-run relationship in the case of Uruguay. However, in the case of Chile, the evidence founded is not clear in favour to a nonlinear model with asymmetric adjustment.
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Fecha: 2018
This paper studies the long-run relationship between income inequality and economic growth in Uruguay, a high income Latin American country. Cointegration techniques are applied by using nonparametric tests and data for the period 1986 to 2014.
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Fecha: 2018
Idioma: Inglés
Año: 2018
This study contributes to the literature on the determinants of tourism spending on cruises at a microeconomic level, through the application of innovative methodologies framed within the machine learning literature. The objective is to study the distribution of the total expenditure of cruise passengers in Uruguay, using data of the 2016–2017 cruise season survey (collected by the Ministry of Tourism of Uruguay). Due to the nature of this variable, we implement a two stages modeling strategy. In the first stage, we model the probability of spending, and in the second, the strictly positive spending. The paper analyze the distribution of conditional expenditure to a set of sociodemographic, travel, contextual and satisfaction variables applying non-linear regression techniques with Lasso penalty and nonparametric techniques such as Random Forest. The empirical results show that the key variables that determine the average spending of cruise tourists are their residence and the port of arrival of the cruise. The analysis of the predictive performance of the models (applied through a training sample and a test sample) shows that Random Forest method has the greater predictive capacity. Finally, the importance variable is analyzed by Random Forest.
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Fecha: 2017
Este trabajo introduce el uso de grafos en el análisis de los determinantes del gasto de los turistas y lo aplica al estudio del comportamiento de los pasajeros de cruceros que desembarcan en Uruguay en los puertos de Montevideo y Punta del Este. Este enfoque ofrece un abordaje alternativo a los usualmente empleados para analizar los determinantes del gasto turístico al introducir una representación gráfica que permite sintetizar y visualizar las relaciones entre el conjunto de variables que caracterizan a los turistas o grupos de turistas y los determinantes de su nivel de gasto. En particular, la metodología permite representar las relaciones de dependencia entre variables (entre nodos adyacentes) e independencias condicionadas (entre nodos no adyacentes). Para su aplicación, se consideran datos individuales de las encuestas realizadas a cruceristas correspondientes a la temporada de cruceros comprendida entre noviembre de 2014 y abril de 2015, ambos incluidos, en Uruguay. Se estudia la existencia de dependencias de las variables relativas a registrar el gasto de los cruceristas con otras variables (sociodemográficas, de contexto, etc.). El estudio muestra que las variables que mejor explican el comportamiento de los visitantes son las vinculadas al puerto de desembarco y al gasto. Asimismo, los resultados muestran que las variables socioeconómicas no están vinculadas al gasto en forma directa.
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Fecha: 2017
En Uruguay, como ocurre en otros países latinoamericanos, el turismo de cruceros ha
aumentado su importancia como generador de divisas. Con el objetivo de contribuir a la
planificación de los programas turísticos e intensificar dicha tendencia, en este trabajo se
analizan los distintos determinantes del gasto de cruceristas en los puertos de desembarco
de Punta del Este y Montevideo. Las estimaciones de modelos de selección de Heckman
sobre las encuestas de los años 2010 a 2014 muestran que son algunas pocas características
las que determinan el nivel de gasto: la nacionalidad, viajar en grupo, visitar Montevideo
y, particularmente, el grado de satisfacción con el viaje. Este patrón no ha experimentado
variaciones significativas en el periodo de análisis.
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Fecha: 2016
El presente trabajo analiza los determinantes de los flujos de turismo doméstico en Uruguay
durante 2010-2012 en el contexto de los modelos gravitatorios. Los resultados muestran que los
flujos turísticos dependen positivamente de la cantidad de población de cada departamento y
negativa de la distancia que los separa. Los departamentos con mayores ingresos y la capital del
país son los principales emisores de turistas. Se verifica también que los departamentos contiguos
tienen mayores flujos turísticos entre sí. Asimismo, los departamentos con costas oceánicas o con
alojamientos de buena calidad poseen una importante ventaja comparativa respecto a los restantes.
Los resultados obtenidos muestran la racionalidad de que las estrategias de comunicación y
promoción de productos y destinos turísticos, se orienten hacia Montevideo y los departamentos
con mayores niveles de población e ingreso. Uno de los resultados no esperados del trabajo fue el
impacto negativo en los flujos turísticos entrantes en los departamentos que poseen costas sobre
el Río de la Plata.
