The main objective of the group is to study the behavior of the Uruguayan economy from a macroeconomic perspective, seeking a greater understanding of the structural relationships between macroeconomic variables both in the short and long-term.
This involves carrying out systematic evaluations of the Uruguayan economy, identifying the determinants of its current situation and forecasting its short-run evolution. This requires maintaining a database of the country’s relevant statistical information, processing this data, constructing and updating indicators and prediction models, as well as publishing brief reports on topics relevant to the current economic situation.
In addition, in order to support and reinforce the short-term evaluations, we carry out medium and long-term analyses, focusing on the determinants of Uruguayan economic growth, the labor market and foreign trade and competitiveness.
This study models the relative expenditure of tourists in terms of budget allocation according to their dependence on a group of covariates. A model that captures how tourist distributes its budget among the diverse items is introduced to characterize and compare different types of tourists according to their relative expenditure patterns. For the empirical exercise, data for the period 2014–2019 collected by the Ministry of Tourism from the Inbound Tourism survey in Uruguay is analyzed by means of the compositional data analysis and modeled by a Dirichlet regression. The empirical results show that the expending pattern in accommodation, food, and others items depend on the destination, the season, the nationality, and the type of accommodation. In addition, the inferential analysis reveals different typologies of tourist, providing a novel interpretation of the tourist behavior from the microeconomic perspective.
This study analyses the common trends between expectation indicators of producers of the manufacturing sector in Uruguay and its linkage with economic growth. To this end, four expectation indicators are constructed from qualitative data obtained using surveys collected by the Camaras de Industrias del Uruguay (CIU) for the period 1998- 2017. Common trends are identified by estimating Multivariate Structural Models on the expectations indicators (categorized in four groups according to the firm specialization and international insertion). Its dynamical linkage with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is analyzed by applying non-parametric cointegration and causality tests. Results give evidence of bidirectional causality between expectations and GDP growth in the long, while in the short-run causality goes uniquely from the exporters' sentiment indicator trend to the GDP growth. The expectation trend of the more tradable and exposed to international competition sectors (exporter industries) is the one that drives overall industrials' expectations in Uruguay. More importantly, we cannot reject nonlinearity in the long-run relationship between the underlying trend of exporters' expectations and Uruguayan GDP growth, which shows that it may be a useful predictor of GDP growth provided that this nonlinearity is taken into account.
The aim of this article is to introduce a multivariate statistical model that represents the expenditure of tourists disaggregated by categories. The model is applied to study the distribution of the expenditure of cruise passengers in Uruguay, using data of the 2016-2017 cruise season survey (collected by the Ministry of Tourism). Given the mixed distribution in each component of the main variable, the model is implemented in two stages and using copulas to obtain a conditional distribution of the different items of expenditure, characterizing the dependence between them. The empirical results show that the key variables that determine the average spending of cruise tourists are their residence and the port of arrival of the cruise. The parameters representing dependence of the copula show moderate association between the different categories of expenditure, in particular for cruisers disembarking in Montevideo, the capital of Uruguay. In addition, it can be noted that the expenditure pattern in each item shows time dependence. In general, the empirical results show that a cruiser that spends more on one item is likely to spend more (less) on a complementary (noncomplementary) items of expense.
In this paper we analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on export flows among a panel of 27 countries throughout the 1994/01-2014/12 period. In order to do this, we apply a panel vector autoregressive model approach. By dividing the panel into two subgroups that involve manufacturing-exporting and commodity-exporting economies, we observe a different effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports. This has a negative impact in manufacturing-exporting countries, but does not affect commodity-exporting countries. This result appears to be explained by countries’ economics characteristics, involving the flexibility or rigidities of the export adjustment arising exchange rate uncertainty.
El trabajo analiza la relación causal entre la inversión pública en infraestructura vial
y el crecimiento económico en Uruguay. A partir de información del gasto público en
infraestructura vial para el período 1988-2014, se estudia su relación de largo y corto
plazo con el crecimiento económico sobre la base de análisis de cointegración y modelos de corrección al equilibrio
Ch.7 "Strategies in Sustainable Tourism, Economic Growth and Clean Energy"
Editors: Daniel Balsalobre-LorenteOana M. DrihaMuhammad Shahbaz
Springer Ed.
The relationship between air transport development and economic growth has been recently analysed in the economic literature. Most of the empirical research focuses in the identification of linear linkages and causalities between these variables (controlling or not by other macro variables). Previous research performed for a set of Latin-American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay) suggests that for the last two countries, nonlinear long-run cointegration relationships exist between transport and economic growth. The present study focuses on the identification of the nonlinearities underlay in those relationships and proposes a model to represent them. The methodology used in this paper combines cointegration concepts with asymmetric adjustment threshold models. In both cases, the nonlinearity is modelled on the dynamics of the adjustment to the long-run cointegration path between the variables, from transitory situations of disequilibrium. It is shown that M-TAR adjustment mechanism to the long-run equilibrium is suitable to describe the long-run relationship in the case of Uruguay. However, in the case of Chile, the evidence founded is not clear in favour to a nonlinear model with asymmetric adjustment.
The main objective of this paper is to estimate the tourism demand for Mexico and Uruguay, two very different countries, but for both of which tourism is an important activity, and mainly originating from a large neighbor.
This research establishes a significant relationship between the share of self-employment in total employment and the Okun's coefficient, which had been insufficiently addressed in the literature. We provide evidence on the determinants driving the differences in the unemployment–output relationship in Spanish regions and conclude that the differences in the share of self-employment in total employment prove relevant when accounting for differences in Okun's law, and its effect is greater than that of labour productivity per worker, which had been considered the main factor for regional discrepancies. The economic policy implications of this outcome are valuable for two reasons: European authorities are promoting self-employment and the emergence of the ‘gig economy’. This finding also opens a notable line of research: assessing whether this empirical regularity is observable in other economies.
In this paper, we analyze Uruguayans living abroad that visit Uruguay for their holidays,
what in the literature is called Nostalgic tourism or Visiting friends and relatives (VFR) tourism.
This paper studies the RER volatility dynamics, estimated through GARCH and IGARCH models for Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and Uruguay from 1990 to 2013.
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