This analysis quantifies changesin global agricultural markets for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat due to yield changes triggered by climate change. The scenarios include four representative concentration pathways (RCP), five global climate models, three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) capturing differences in population levels and economic growth, and enhanced COurn:x-wiley:01695150:media:agec12660:agec12660-math-0001-fertilization. Yield projections incorporate the influence of SSPs on nitrogen application and agricultural technology. Depending on the SSP and comparing the RCP8.5 ensemble yields (with COurn:x-wiley:01695150:media:agec12660:agec12660-math-0002-fertilization) to a no climate change scenario in 2050, price increases for maize (61.3%–80.9%), soybeans (36.7%–51.7%), and wheat (5.4%–11.1%) are observed. Large wheat producers in temperate regions expand wheat production under climate change. Rice benefits from COurn:x-wiley:01695150:media:agec12660:agec12660-math-0003 fertilization resulting in a relatively uniform price decrease across scenarios of 19.5%–19.9%. Cropland expansion between 2015 and 2050 is lowest for the high economic growth scenario. Depending on the crop and region, there are significant reductions in production especially for maize. Absolute changes in trade patterns are most pronounced for wheat and least for rice. Using trade as a means to dampen the negative welfare effects of climate change will be important and so is economic growth.
China is a major importer of agricultural products and we examine retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on U.S. pork, soybeans, corn, and wheat. We use an agricultural trade model to determine the impacts on agricultural commodity markets and combine our results with an input‐output model to measure economic effects in the United States...
Increasing biofuel production over the last decade and biofuel policies in Brazil, the European Union, and the United States have changed the global agricultural landscape in terms of land-use, commodity prices, and trade...
The long-term relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy use and economic activity level is estimated for Uruguay between 1882 and 2010.
Author/s: Carriquiry, Miguel; David R. Kanter; Marie Hélène Schwoob; Walter E. Baethgen; José E. Bervejillo; Achim Dobermann; Bruno Ferraro; Bruno Lanfranco; Mario Mondelli; Cecilia Penengo; Rodrigo Saldias; María Eugenia Silva; Juan Manuel Soares de Lima
The production cost of biofuels is a major determinant of their potential contribution as alternative sources of energy. This chapter provides a review of the literature on production costs of first and second generation biofuels, including a breakdown of their main components. In the process we highlight some of the resasons behind the widely divergent cost estimates that have been published.
Focusing on dynamics of the relative prices of substitute fuels, namely ethanol and gasoline, this study quantifies the impact of the increase in shares of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the vehicle fleet on the domestic ethanol prices in Brazil. A modified partial adjustment model is employed. Estimation results provide strong support for our research hypotheses: (i) when consumers can choose between the fuels the relative ethanol and gasoline prices converge to a long-run equilibrium level, which is determined by the fuel economy, and (ii) price dynamics are largely determined by market supply and demand factors including the price of sugar, ethanol exports, and composition of vehicle fleet. Furthermore, the impacts of demand factors such as ethanol exports are strengthened by the increasing proportion of FFVs in the vehicle fleet.
En marzo de 2012, en el marco de un homenaje en reconocimiento a la trayectoria de Enrique Iglesias Iglesias se presentó un nuevo libro de la serie Red Mercosur titulado "Enrique V. Iglesias, Intuición y ética en la construcción de Futuro". La presentación se realizó en el Banco Central dentro de las actividades de la Asamblea anual de Gobernadores del BID que tuvo lugar en Montevideo.