Research Teams |
Seminario IECON "Impact of climate change on global agricultural trade through yield variations"Presenta Miguel Carriquiry (IECON-FCEA) en co-autoría con J. Dumortier y A. Elobeid Abstract "We quantify the changes in global agricultural trade by 2055 for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat due to variations in commodity yields triggered by climate change. Our analysis is differentiated by population levels and economic growth rates associated with three shared socioeconomic pathways as well as by the effect of CO2 fertilization. A baseline assuming no climate change is compared to a scenario consistent with a representative concentration pathway with a radiative force of 8.5 W m-2 i.e., RCP8.5. The baseline and the scenario will establish an upper and lower bound of economic effects associated with yield changes from climate change. Our results show price increases for maize, soybeans, and wheat by at least 70%, 37%, and 7%, respectively. In the absence of CO2 fertilization, rice price increases by at least 26% and may decrease by 23% with CO2 fertilization. Total agricultural area across all climate change scenarios is expected to be higher between 1.3% and 6.2% in 2055. Depending on the crop and country/region, there are significant reductions in production especially for maize. Absolute changes in trade patterns are most pronounced for wheat and least for rice. The increase in cropland will lead to additional carbon emissions enforcing climate change. Intra- and inter country welfare changes are inevitable under climate change given the increases in crop prices and changes in trade". Martes 17/03/2020 12 hs, Salón Multifuncional Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración |