Grupos de Investigación |
Seminario IECON "The Limits to Fertility Recuperation"Presenta Daniel Ciganda (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) en co- autoría con N. Todd Abstract "The reversal of the association between socioeconomic development indicators and fertility rates suggests that a scenario of systematic fertility recuperation is not unlikely for a large number of countries in which fertility has fallen to low and very low levels. In this study, we analyze the micro-foundations of the relationship between development and fertility and explore the extent to which further advances in development can drive an increase in fertility rates. We use an individual-level computational model of the reproductive process to simulate the maternity histories of post-baby boom cohorts in France, Ireland, and Spain. The model explains the observed fertility patterns in these three countries as the combined result of the diffusion of contraception, increased access to higher education, and the generalization of female labor force participation. Our forecasting scenarios predict that even in the presence of a strong positive effect of education on fertility intentions, there are limits to the recuperation scenario imposed by further reductions in the time available for family formation, the already-small distance between desired and achieved fertility among recent cohorts, and the deceleration of the forces that could exert a positive influence on fertility rates in the near future." DÍA Y HORARIO EXTRAORDINARIOS Jueves 19/03/2020 12 hs, Salón Multifuncional Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración |