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Volatility and cycles of investment and product of Uruguay in the long run: an spectral analysis and decomposition of time series.ISSN/ISBN: 1688-8561
Year:
2013
Author/s: Román, Carolina , Vázquez, Daniela
Areas: Economic History , Publications
Editorial: Revista Uruguaya de Historia Económica, Vol III (3)
Nº of Pages: pp.84-103
Capital accumulation is one of the main factors that drive economic growth. In this article we analyze some of the cyclical characteristics of the long run evolution of capital accumulation in Uruguay using the spectral analysis and the decomposition of time series in the period 1870-2010. In particular, the focus is on studying the cycles of investment and product, the duration, persistence, the cyclical volatility and the relative volatility of investment in relation to product. Previous studies on investment have dealt with these features but for the second half of the 20th century. We take advantage of new historical series on investment, recently published by Román and Willebald (2012), which covers the time period since 1870 to the present. In addition, the spectral analysis is used in this historical context, and several techniques for decomposition of time series are used as a sensibility analysis of the results obtained. |